Protest Atlas

How mobilisation levels work

Each level is a Protest Atlas assessment, not an official measure. It follows fixed rules applied mainly to the last 30 days, using the police (official) count because it is the cautious figure; organisers' counts are shown alongside.

• Quiet: no national protest day in the last 60 days, no smaller actions in the last 30 days, and none announced.
• Active: a national protest day in the last 60 days, smaller sector, student or regional actions in the last 30 days, or a national protest or strike announced for the next 3 weeks, without meeting a Major rule.
• Major: at least one of these: peak turnout of 1 person per 1,000 inhabitants or more; a national strike held or called; deaths; three or more named groups joining over three or more national days.
• Restricted: public protest is heavily restricted (Russia, Belarus), so low numbers do not mean calm.
• How countries are checked: countries with recent protests or announced dates are researched every day; the others are screened for new protests in a daily Europe-wide news sweep and checked one by one each Monday. A Quiet country can still have local protests below national scale.

Pressure on government (Low / Rising / High) is a separate indicator for Active and Major countries. Points: demand (one policy 0, the government’s programme 1, resignation or early elections 2); 3+ groups joined 1; opposition parties joined 1; 3+ national days or 3+ weeks running 1; national strike or deaths 1; crackdown 1; government response (talks or concessions 1, resignation or confidence vote 2); fragile government (strained 1, fragile 2). Rising from 3 points; High from 6 points when resignation is demanded or a resignation or confidence vote has happened.

Thresholds are a first proposal and will be adjusted against past movements. The trend compares the last 15 days with the 15 days before.